This is the main number of the week. The market expects inflation to speed up: annual CPI at 3.6% vs 3.4% last time, monthly at 0.6% vs 0.4%.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is rising noticeably slower than the headline figure: the forecast is 0.2% month over month and 2.5% year over year.
💡 This matters because inflation directly affects expectations for the Fed rate, and with them the dollar. A number above the forecast usually supports the dollar, and one below the forecast weighs on it. The gap between headline and core inflation is just as interesting: analysts estimate that energy and gasoline are driving prices up.
Volume and volatility usually jump sharply at the moment of release. As always, we watch how the market reacts to the number.
Track the data flow and real-time liquidity reaction through our app:
