The common view is that the market comes back to life after the summer lull: more participants return and central banks hold their meetings.
That's where seasonal “patterns” come from.
For example, according to ADCB Asset Management (FX Indicator Chartpack), over 1990–2024 the US dollar index (DXY) rose on average by 0.24% in October and by 0.47% in November. For EUR/USD, the average return in those months was −0.31% and −0.37% respectively.
But the analysts themselves warn that seasonality is unreliable and doesn't work every year. Macroeconomics (the Fed rate cycle, elections, inflation) can break long-term patterns over short stretches of 1–3 years.
Trying to short the dollar “by the calendar” is like playing roulette. So treat seasonality as background and don't take it as a signal. It's a reference point, and it won't work as a ready-made trading system.
🙂 In the UniqUnits method, volatility is used only in combination with the three main analysis factors: liquidity, volume and trend. It really matters that all the factors confirm each other and don't contradict one another.
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